The grey boxes show the median of the model projections (central bar) as well as the likely range, which comprises two thirds of the model projections. The papers describing this dataset are:
Global and European sea-level rise, 08 Sep 2008 - All available studies project that the damages from coastal floods in Europe would increase many-fold in the absence of adaptation, whereby the specific projections depend on the assumptions of the particular study. [x] Robert E. Kopp et al., ‘Probabilistic 21st and 22nd Century Sea-Level Projections at a Global Network of Tide-Gauge Sites’,Earth’s Future 2, no. Sea level rise, https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/sea-level-rise-6, European Environment Information and Observation Network (Eionet), Biodiversity Information System for Europe, European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register, Information Platform for Chemical Monitoring, Marine Water Information System for Europe, Fresh Water Information System for Europe. Projections consider land movement due to glacial isostatic adjustment but not land subsidence due to human activities. Projected increases in extreme high coastal water levels are likely to mostly be the result of increases in local relative mean sea level in most locations. In conclusion, while there have been detectable changes in extreme water levels around the European coastline, most of these are the result of changes in local mean sea level. The along-track high-resolution (20 Hz) Sea Level Anomalies are now available during the period 2002-2018 based on the missions Jason-1, Jason-2 and Jason-3 in 6 regions of the coastal world ocean including the Mediterranean Sea, North-East Atlantic, West Africa, North Indian Ocean, South-East Asia and Australia. 7 (26 June 2017): 492–95, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3325; Hans Visser, Sönke Dangendorf, and Arthur C. Petersen, ‘A Review of Trend Models Applied to Sea Level Data with Reference to the “Acceleration-Deceleration Debate”’,Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 120, no. Sea level rise is the main driver of the changes, but intensified climate extremes along most of northern Europe can have significant local effects. Model-based projections for changes in regional sea level rise included only grid cells that are covered at least half by sea. 3 (19 June 2014): 473–83, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-473-2014; Michalis I. Vousdoukas et al., ‘Projections of Extreme Storm Surge Levels along Europe’,Climate Dynamics, 20 February 2016, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3019-5; Vousdoukas et al., ‘Extreme Sea Levels on the Rise along Europe’s Coasts’. Reconstructions of global mean sea level (GMSL) based on tide gauge observations suggest a rise of about 20 cm in the period between 1901 and 2015 (Figure 1). B8 (10 August 2002): 2157, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JB000400. A significant recent step forwards in projecting future sea levels is the improved understanding of the contributing factors to recently observed sea level rise, which has increased confidence in the use of process-based models for projecting the future. The grey boxes show the median of the model projections (central bar) as well as the likely range, which comprises two thirds of the model projections. In November 2013, the European Parliament and the European Council adopted the 7 th EU Environment Action Programme to 2020 ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. 6 (1 June 2015): 3873–95, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC010716; J. Blunden and D. S. Arndt, ‘A Look at 2016: Takeaway Points from theState of the Climate Supplement’,Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 98, no. In Europe, the potential impacts of sea level rise include flooding, coastal erosion and the submergence of flat regions along continental coastlines and on islands. Church et al., ‘Sea-Level Change’, inClimate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Geodetic Results’,Journal of Geophysical Research 107, no. projected change in global sea level for three different forcing scenarios;
As far as the satellite altimetry derived indicator is concerned, the global and European sea level trends are calculated from a combination of nine partly overlapping satellite missions. On its own, ice loss from the world’s biggest island is responsible for more than 20% of sea-level rise since 2005, according to new data published Thursday. Similar results were derived in other recent studies [x]. 4 (10 October 2015): 224–46, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0024-4; Hay et al., ‘Probabilistic Reanalysis of Twentieth-Century Sea-Level Rise’; Christopher S. Watson et al., ‘Unabated Global Mean Sea-Level Rise over the Satellite Altimeter Era’,Nature Climate Change 5, no. The sea level ocean monitoring indicator is derived from the DUACS delayed-time (DT-2018 version) altimeter gridded maps of sea level anomalies based on a stable number of altimeters (two) in the satellite constellation. The average sea level rise predicted by the IPCC, the United Nations body for assessing climate change, is 0.43 metres by the end of the 21st century, and it … You must enable cookies before you can log in. [i] Ralf Weisse et al., ‘Changing Extreme Sea Levels along European Coasts’,Coastal Engineering, Coasts@Risks: THESEUS, a new wave in coastal protection, 87 (May 2014): 4–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.017. Sea level is measured by two main methods: tide gauges and satellite altimeters. observed change in GMSL, based on two reconstructions from tide gauge measurements (since 1880) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993); spatial trends in absolute sea level across European seas, based on satellite measurements (since 1993); spatial trends in relative sea level across European seas, based on European tide gauge stations with long time series (since 1970); projected change in global sea level for three different forcing scenarios; projected change in relative sea level across European seas; projected change in the frequency of flooding events along European coasts. it examines the increasingly rapid changes that are
The following aspects of sea level rise are included:
[xv] Alexander Nauels et al., ‘Synthesizing Long-Term Sea Level Rise Projections – the MAGICC Sea Level Model v2.0’,Geoscientific Model Development 10, no. The evaluation package comprises a Report on the implementation of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change (COM(2018)738), the Evaluation of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change (SWD(2018)461), and the Adaptation preparedness scoreboard Country fiches (SWD(2018)460). Changes in global average sea level result from a combination of several physical processes. Salinity in the Mediterranean Sea may increase in the future and this will tend to offset rises in sea level due to thermal expansion from warming. 3–4 (June 2011): 116–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.04.002; Sönke Dangendorf et al., ‘North Sea Storminess from a Novel Storm Surge Record since AD 1843’,Journal of Climate 27, no. Coastal storms and storm surges can also have considerable ecological impacts, such as seabird wrecks, disruption to seal mating and pupping, and increases in large mammal and turtle strandings. The current research evidence suggests that projected increases in extreme sea level along the European coast during the upcoming decades will mostly be the result of mean sea level changes [vii]. (Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013), 13SM–1–13SM–8, http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Ch13SM_FINAL.pdf. IPCC, 2014b: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. However, another recent modelling study suggests that ice loss from Antarctica could occur more rapidly than previously thought and lead to sea level rise of more than 15 m by 2500 under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario [xvi]. It emphasized that EU policy must seek to create synergies between climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction efforts and sustainable development to avoid future damage and provide for long-term economic and social welfare in Europe and in partner countries. In Europe, the largest contributions to global sea level rise come from the peripheral glaciers in Greenland, and the glaciers located in Svalbard and Iceland. Past sea level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea level rise in Europe; second, relative sea level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. The most obvious impact of extreme sea levels is flooding. Finally, at any particular location, there may be a vertical movement of the land in either direction, due, for example, to the ongoing effects of post-glacial rebound (also known as glacial isostatic adjustment), which is particularly strong in northern Europe, to local groundwater extraction or to other processes, including tectonic activity. 6274 (12 February 2016): 699–703, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad8386. The locally experienced changes in sea level differ from global average changes for various reasons. This is due mostly to thermal expansion of the oceans as a result of warming, but also to extra water addition due to melting ice. [xi] S Jevrejeva, A Grinsted, and J C Moore, ‘Upper Limit for Sea Level Projections by 2100’,Environmental Research Letters 9, no. [xii] Luis M. Abadie, Elisa Sainz de Murieta, and Ibon Galarraga, ‘Climate Risk Assessment under Uncertainty: An Application to Main European Coastal Cities’,Frontiers in Marine Science 3 (16 December 2016), https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2016.00265. Further objectives include Promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors through climate-proofing EU sector policies and Promoting action by Member States. B. 7535 (22 January 2015): 481–84, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14093; Sönke Dangendorf et al., ‘Reassessment of 20th Century Global Mean Sea Level Rise’,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. Little changes in climate extremes are shown along southern Europe, with the exception of a projected decrease along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz, offseting sea level rise by 20–30%. Tide gauge records can be more than 100 years long; they show changes in relative sea level considering also land changes, which is more relevant for coastal protection than absolute sea level. Values larger than 1 indicate an increase in flooding frequency, This European Environment Agency (EEA) report
2 (1 July 2012): 239–52, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0332-1; J. Obviously, sea level changes in coastal zones are most relevant for society. [xxi] A Grinsted et al., ‘Sea Level Rise Projections for Northern Europe under RCP8.5’,Climate Research 64, no. [ii] Melisa Menéndez and Philip L. Woodworth, ‘Changes in Extreme High Water Levels Based on a Quasi-Global Tide-Gauge Data Set’,Journal of Geophysical Research 115, no. Evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy Package, Climate-ADAPT: Adaptation in EU policy sectors, Sign up to receive our news notifications. EEA Web Team, Software updated on Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) is the main driver of the projected rise in ESL, with increasing dominance towards the end of the century and for the high-concentration pathway. In November 2018, the EC published an evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy. To get precise measurements for sea level, researchers studying the ice and the oceans on our planet factor in ongoing The mean sea level evolution estimated in the global ocean is derived from the average of the gridded sea level maps weighted by the cosine of the latitude. Adaptation means anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage they can cause, or taking advantage of opportunities that may arise. The average global sea level has risen by more than 20cm since 1980 – that’s a rate of 0.5mm per month – according to new research from the Basque Centre for Climate Change (BCCC). Consequently, several priority objectives of the 7th EAP refer to climate change adaptation. Second, changes in the gravity field, for instance as water moves from melting ice on land to the ocean, also vary across regions. The evaluation also suggests areas where more work needs to be done to prepare vulnerable regions and sectors. Church et al., ‘Revisiting the Earth’s Sea-Level and Energy Budgets from 1961 to 2008’,Geophysical Research Letters 38, no. the frequency and height of maximum water levels) may be caused by changes in local mean sea level (i.e. Sea level projections are based on process-based models, which are rooted in state-of-the-art climate model simulations. The coloured bars and boxes show estimates for the different contributions to global sea-level rise. The changes in sea level experienced locally differ from global average changes for various reasons. [vii] Weisse et al., ‘Changing Extreme Sea Levels along European Coasts’; Michalis I. Vousdoukas et al., ‘Extreme Sea Levels on the Rise along Europe’s Coasts’,Earth’s Future 5, no. (Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013), 255–316, http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter03_FINAL.pdf; S. Jevrejeva et al., ‘Trends and Acceleration in Global and Regional Sea Levels since 1807’,Global and Planetary Change 113 (February 2014): 11–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.12.004; Peter U. Clark et al., ‘Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change’,Current Climate Change Reports 1, no. Projections of extreme sea level can be made using either process-based (dynamic) or empirical statistical modelling of storm surge behaviour driven by the output of global climate models. This will be achieved by bridging knowledge gaps and further developing the European climate adaptation platform (Climate-ADAPT) as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Some recent studies highlight the contributions to recent sea level rise from ice sheet mass loss that were not included in the process-based models underlying the AR5 estimates above [viii]. 6 (22 March 2016): 3761–3812, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016; A. Sign up to receive our news notifications, Reconstructed Global mean sea level (satellite and altimetre), Global mean sea level reconstruction (Uni Siegen), Time series of gridded Sea Level Anomalies (SL_cci v2.0), Relative sea level trends (tide gauge data), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Summary of AR5 regional projections and allowances. Projections for relative mean sea level in Europe consider the gravitational and solid Earth response and land movement due to glacial isostatic adjustment, but not land subsidence as a result of human activities. Global sea level rise is reported because it is the second-most important metric of global climate change (after global mean surface temperature), and because it is a proxy of sea level rise in Europe. Second, changes in the gravity field, for instance as water moves from melting ice on land to the ocean, also vary across regions. Projections from process-based models with likely ranges and median values for global-mean sea level rise and its contributions in 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 have been made for the four RCP scenarios and scenario SRES A1B used in the AR4. Sea level rise may also change extreme water levels by altering the tidal range and local wave climate. Finally, at any particular location, there may be a vertical movement of the land in either direction, for example due to the ongoing effects of post-glacial rebound (also known as glacial isostatic adjustment), which is particularly strong in northern Europe, to local groundwater extraction or to other processes, including tectonic activity. Horizontal spatial distribution of mean sea level trend in European Seas (January 1993- December 2015), Trend in relative sea level at selected European tide gauge stations, Projections for global mean sea level rise and its contributions. What happens when the coast retreats through a major city? Where the flood frequency curve is steeper, larger increases in protection height or alternative adaptation, including managed retreat, might be needed. Sea level is also affected by local and regional factors, such as vertical land movement. This increase appears to be predominantly due to increases in mean local sea level rather than to changes in storm activity. The indicator also addresses changes in extreme sea level along the European coast. IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. The main approach to projecting future sea level are process-based models, which are rooted in state-of-the-art climate model simulations. Producing a clear picture of either past changes or future projections of extreme high water levels for the entire European coastline is a challenging task because of the impact of local topographical features on surge events. those areas where the bed lies well below sea level and the edges flow into floating ice shelves) could cause GMSL to rise substantially above the likely range projected for the 21st century, but the evidence is insufficient for estimating the likelihood of such a collapse [vii]. EEA Plone KGS 20.11.21. This data archive comprises all data underlying figures and maps in Chapter 4 (Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities) of the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate published in 2019. from version 20.10.13, Software version: 3–4 (4 December 2014): 245–60, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1298-6. In general, projected increases in coastal flooding are predominantly or entirely due to this sea level rise, rather than changes in storm surges (Humphrey and Murphy 2016) or large-scale weather patterns, though there are regional variations (e.g. However, several recent studies suggest that changes in wave and storm surge climate may also play a substantial role in sea level changes during the 21st century in some regions. Sea level measurements for the European region are available from satellite altimeter observations (Figure 2) and from tide gauges (Figure 3). Thermal expansion and melting of glaciers account for around 75 % of the measured sea level rise since 1971. This is an area in which current scientific understanding is advancing quickly, as climate model representations of aspects of northern hemisphere storm track behaviour are improving, because of, for instance, greater ocean and atmosphere resolution. Changes in sea level experienced locally differ from global average changes for various reasons. Oppenheimer et al. The map allows users to choose between the leading sea level rise models and incorporate the most accurate elevation data available. Changes in GMSL result from a combination of several physical processes. Past sea level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea level rise in Europe; second, relative sea level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. Sea level rise raises the height of sea level extremes, making coastal inundation more likely. (New version data-and-maps/indicators/sea-level-rise-6/assessment was published), Horizontal spatial distribution of mean sea level trend in European Seas (January 1993- December 2015). (2019): Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities. However, substantially higher values of sea level rise cannot be ruled out. It is both timely and important, since
A. Slangen et al., ‘Detection and Attribution of Global Mean Thermosteric Sea Level Change’,Geophysical Research Letters 41, no. This is an area where current scientific understanding is advancing quickly, as climate model representations of aspects of Northern Hemisphere storm track behaviour are showing improvements associated with, for instance, greater ocean and atmosphere resolution. Engineered by: Most EU Member States have already adopted national adaptation strategies and many have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation. [xi] S. Brown et al.,The Impacts and Economic Costs of Sea-Level Rise in Europe and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation. 1–2 (2014): 317–32, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9; Johansson et al., ‘Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios Adapted to the Finnish Coast’. This package consists of the EU strategy on adaptation to climate change (COM/2013/216 final) and a number of supporting documents. This paper is published "Open Access" and is available as a pdf: http://www.springerlink.com/content/h2575k28311g5146/
(2012): New Data Systems and Products at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level. Church et al., ‘Sea Level Change Supplementary Material’, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. NASA launches U.S.-European satellite to track sea level rise The Associated Press 3 hrs ago. [xix] Church et al., ‘Sea-Level Change’; Luke P. Jackson and Svetlana Jevrejeva, ‘A Probabilistic Approach to 21st Century Regional Sea-Level Projections Using RCP and High-End Scenarios’,Global and Planetary Change 146 (November 2016): 179–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.10.006. First, changes in water density are not expected to be spatially uniform, and the spatial pattern also depends on changes in large-scale ocean circulation. The locally experienced changes in sea level differ from global average changes for various reasons. The 7th EAP is intended to help guide EU action on environment and climate change up to and beyond 2020. Changes in water density are not expected to be spatially uniform, and changes in ocean circulation also have regionally different impacts. 7 (16 April 2014): 2514–2519, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059637; T. A. Shaw et al., ‘Storm Track Processes and the Opposing Influences of Climate Change’,Nature Geoscience 9, no. B. In April 2013, the European Commission adopted an EU strategy on adaptation to climate change, which has been welcomed by the EU Member States. 4 (April 2016): 360–69, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2923; DeConto and Pollard, ‘Contribution of Antarctica to Past and Future Sea-Level Rise’; Hansen et al., ‘Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms’. The contributions from ice-sheet rapid dynamics and anthropogenic land water storage have been treated as having uniform probability distributions, and as independent of scenario (except that a higher rate of change is used for Greenland ice-sheet outflow under RCP8.5).
For RCP8.5, the rise in GMSL by 2100 is projected to be in the range of 0.53–0.97 m, with a rate during 2081–2100 of 7–15 mm/year (Figure 4). Further contributions may come from changes in the storage of liquid water on land, in either natural reservoirs such as groundwater or man-made reservoirs. However, the newest global climate models have not yet, typically, been downscaled to suitably fine scales and used in studies of future storm surges. Past sea level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea level rise in Europe; second, relative sea level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. In most parts of the world, projected shoreline dynamics are dominated by sea level rise and moderate greenhouse gas emission mitigation could prevent 40% of shoreline retreat globally. Damage associated with sea level rise is mostly caused by extreme events, such as storm surges. Many tide gauge measurements have long multi-decade time series, with some exceeding more than 100 years. Currently, around 200 million people live in the coastal zone in Europe, as defined by Eurostat 3 25... Than 100 years November 2018, the EC presented an indicative roadmap for the different contributions to sea record! Of slowing down print this page only if needed cities through the Covenant of for. Dataset are: church, J inundation sea level rise in europe likely small action can make an enormous difference when millions of do. The coloured bars and boxes show estimates for the different techniques used to measure changes in the climatology extreme. Policy sectors, Sign up to receive our news notifications effects and post-glacial rebound are! Bars and boxes show estimates for the further development and implementation of policies! Web CMS works best with following browsers: Internet Explorer is not recommended for the of! 2011 ): 699–703, https: //doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0148.1 indicator-based Assessment of past and future sea Change. Levels show pronounced short- and long-term variability mostly caused by changes in GMSL result from a combination of Physical... Covered by land and by sea were extrapolated using the nearest-neighbour method satellite track! For seasonal variations, the results can be distorted by various regional and local-scale features. Stations around the world, scientists can calculate a global average changes for various.! Lying Islands, coasts and communities and regional factors, such as storm surges can be! 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