For each category of emissions, an RCP contains a set of starting values and the estimated emissions up to 2100, based on assumptions about economic activity, energy sources, population growth and other socio-economic factors. Gross domestic product (GDP) increases in all cases; of note, the RCP2.6 pathway has the highest GDP, though it has the least dependence on fossil fuel sources. Projections also include previous IPCC scenarios (IPCC Scenarios 1992a (IS92a), Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1, TAR Appendix II) and some alternative near-term scenarios for meth-ane (CH 4) and short-lived pollutants that impact climate or air quality. The SRES and RCP scenarios have been criticized for being biased towards “exaggerated resource availability” and making “unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels. To better appreciate the worlds that the RCP scenarios are based on, I have excerpted below the “storylines” for the emission scenarios used in the 2007 IPCC report (AR4). A RCP scenario basically consists of numbers - a prodigious amount of them. The largest growth and cumulative release of CO2 is associated with the RCAP 8.5 fossil-fuel-intensive scenario, while the smallest is associated with the RCP 2.6 scenario. Please send comments or suggestions on accessibility to the site editor. One (the A1 'one global family' storyline chosen by Michael Mann and Lee Kump in version 1 of Dire Predictions) assumed a future of globalization and rapid economic and technological growth, including fossil fuel intensive (A1FI), non-fossil fuel intensive (A1T), and balanced (A1B) versions. The RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios stabilize after 2100 at 4.2 W / m2 and 6.0 W / m2, respectively. This RCP is developed by the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m −2 (approximately 650 ppm CO 2-equivalent) in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value.The defining characteristics of this scenario are enumerated in Moss et al. 2000). Key points • Starting point: non-mitigation SRES scenarios (SRES= Special Report on Emission Scenarios, 2000) • Decisions taken by IPCC about development of scenarios for AR5 • Parallel approach with fast-track RCPs • RCPs: Representative Concentration Pathways • NB: Socio-economic aspects covered in Ramon Pichs talk 2 They were created with 'integrated assessment models' that include climate, economic, land use, demographic, and energy-usage effects, whose greenhouse gas concentrations were then converted to an emissions trajectory using carbon cycle models. Second, there is an 9) SRES A2 scenario - A scenario consistent with the IPCC's SRES A2 storyline. One (the A1 'one global family' storyline chosen by Michael Mann and Lee Kump in version 1 of Dire Predictions) assumed a future of globalization and rapid economic and technological growth, including fossil fuel intensive (A1FI), non-fossil fuel intensive (A1T), and balanced (A1B) versions. Depending on the path chosen by society, we could plausibly approach CO 2 concentrations that are quadruple pre-industrial levels by 2100. The changes in areal annual precipitation under the three RCP scenarios (Fig. Getting the concentrations actually requires an intermediate step involving the use of simple model of ocean carbon uptake, to account for the effect of oceanic absorption of atmospheric CO 2 . In the late 2000s, researchers from different modelling groups around the world began the process of developing new scenarios to explore how the world might change over the rest of the 21st century.Earlier efforts during the 1990s had developed the “ Even the RCPs have encountered a fair bit of criticism. The RCP scenarios superseded the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections published in 2000 and were based on similar socio-economic models. They were created with 'integrated assessment models' that include climate, economic, land use, demographic, and energy-usage effects, whose greenhouse gas concentrations were then converted to an emissions trajectory using carbon cycle models. WGIII Economic activity is prioritized over environmental conservation. Cambridge University Press, UK. Each RCP is based on a scenario from the literature that includes a socio-economic development pathway. “God help us if 8.5 turns out to be the right scenario,” Jackson told me. The John A. Dutton e-Education Institute is the learning design unit of the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences at The Pennsylvania State University. With all of these scenarios, stabilizing CO2 concentrations requires not just preventing the increase of emissions, but reducing emissions. The RCP2.6 scenario peaks at 3.0 W / m2 before declining to 2.6 W / m2 in 2100, and requires strong mitigation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the 21st century. IPCC, 2000: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Global areas of inundation due to sea level rise are identified. The RCPs cover a wider range than the scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) used in previous assessments, as they also represent scenarios with climate policy. Figure 1. The aim of this study was the comparison between SOURCE: van Vuuren et. original SA90 scenarios19 were replaced by the IS92 emission scenarios of the 1990s,20 which were in turn succeeded by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in 2000 (SRES)21 and by the Representative Concentration Path-ways in 2010 (RCPs).22 SA90, IS92, and SRES are all emission-based scenarios. However, seasonal precipitation and streamflow showed various tendencies under different emission scenarios, and their inner annual distribution patterns tended to change as well. RCPs RCP 1.9. Radiative forcing is stabilised shortly after year 2100, which is consistent with the application of a range of technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In Part 3 we take a look at the scenarios in detail, consider the technical aspects, the differences between the four RCPs, and how they compare to earlier SRES scenarios… In previous IPCC assessments, the most widely used and referred-to family of emissions scenarios were the so-called SRES scenarios (for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) that helped form the basis for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Emissions Scenarios Report IPCC, 2000 – Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart (Eds.) For impact, vulnerability or ada… Getting the concentrations actually requires an intermediate step involving the use of simple model of ocean carbon uptake, to account for the effect of oceanic absorption of atmospheric CO 2 . (2011) Radiative forcing for the different RCPs. To try and capture a range of possible future emissions, energy syste… Carbon dioxide emissions for all RCPs except the RCP8.5 scenario peak by 2100. They are referred to as pathways to emphasize that they are not definitive, but are instead internally consistent time-dependent forcing projections that could potentially be realized with multiple socioeconomic scenarios. The climate is affected by many elements, including ocean temperatures, clouds, rainfall and vegetation growth. You might wonder, what scenario do we actually appear to be following? The final and complete SRES scenario data can be viewed and downloaded following the link below. Each scenario is divided into one of four "families" (A1, A2, B1, B2), each with common themes (e.g: Population changes, energy sources, economic development, etc.). In previous IPCC assessments, the most widely used and referred-to family of emissions scenarios were the so-called SRES scenarios (for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) that helped form the basis for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The scenarios are named after the approximate radiative forcing relative to the pre-industrial period achieved either in the year 2100, or at stabilization after 2100. RCP1.9 is a pathway that limits global warming to below 1.5 °C, the aspirational goal of the Paris Agreement. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. This future is … How do they differ from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)? In Part 3 we take a look at the scenarios in detail, consider the technical aspects, the differences between the four RCPs, and how they compare to earlier SRES scenarios. We can see from the above comparison how various trajectories of our future carbon emissions translate to atmospheric CO 2 concentration trajectories. Under RCP 8.5, the world’s average temperature would rise by 4.9 degrees Celsius, or nearly 9 degrees Fahrenheit. Forcing level (W/m 2) 8.5 6.0 4.5 2.6 SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP4 SSP5 Different socioeconomic pathways, but climate “consistent” with RCP 4.5 The new scenarios are called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). In particular, they can take into account climate change mitigation policies to limit emissions. A direct comparison between the projections from the two datasets is not possible, as they use different scenarios describing the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere in the future. The CM3 is just one of many climate models that are analyzed to make predictions about our changing climate. The B1 and B2 scenarios assumed more sustainable practices ('utopia'), with more global-focus and regional-focus, respectively. To better appreciate the worlds that the RCP scenarios are based on, I have excerpted below the “storylines” for the emission scenarios used in the 2007 IPCC report (AR4). Four different narrative storylines were developed to describe consistently the relationships between emission driving forces and their evolution and add context for the scenario quantification. The term pathway emphasises that not only the long-term concentration levels are of interest, but also the trajectory taken over time to reach that outcome (Moss et al., 2010). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA. Except where otherwise noted, content on this site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. The changes in annual streamflow at the Jiamusi hydrological station (Fig. We can see from the above comparison how various trajectories of our future carbon emissions translate to atmospheric CO 2 concentration trajectories. harmonization of base year emissions and landuse cover) and guidance on the use of the RCPs. Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al. The approved new set of scenarios is described in the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) ( IPCC 2000 ). RCP 2.6. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Comparable SRES scenario: B2. Scientists attempt to create scenarios of future human activity that represent plausible future greenhouse emissions pathways. 1992) and, more recently, the scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al. Over the first ten years of these scenarios, observed emissions actually were close to the most carbon intensive of the SRES scenarios—A1FI. For the Fifth Assessment Report, a new set of scenarios, called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was developed. 2007), which was selected from the literature to serve as the basis for the RCP8.5 (for an overview of RCPs, see van Vuuren et al. The RCP4.5 and SRES B1 scenarios are comparable; RCP6.0 lies between the SRES B1 and A1B scenarios. Figure 6.3a: RCP Global Population Scenarios, Click here for text description of Figure 6.3a, Figure 6.3b: RCP Global Population Scenarios. RCP1.9 is a pathway that limits global warming to below 1.5 °C, the aspirational goal of the Paris Agreement. For the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), published back in the year 2000, four alternative scenario families were developed, characterized by socioeconomic storylines that assumed different directions of future development. The RCPs span a wider range of possibilities than the SRES emission scenarios. The RCP2.6 scenario peaks at 3.0 W / m2 before declining to 2.6 W / m2 in 2100, and requires strong mitigation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the 21st century. Comparable SRES scenario: B2. Benefits of using RCPs For the next IPCC Assessment Report (due in 2021-2022), scientists and modelers are using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which link specific policy decisions with projected emissions outcomes. There are four pathways: RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 - the last is also referred to as RCP3-PD. The largest growth and cumulative release of CO2 is associated with the RCAP 8.5 fossil-fuel-intensive scenario, while the smallest is associated with the RCP 2.6 scenario. For example, there is no SRES world in which absolute incomes are constant or falling. RCP4.5 is similar to SRES B1, but the RCP2.6 scenario is much lower than any SRES scenario because it includes the option of using policies to achieve net negative carbon dioxide emissions before the end of the century, while SRES scenarios do not. original SA90 scenarios19 were replaced by the IS92 emission scenarios of the 1990s,20 which were in turn succeeded by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in 2000 (SRES)21 and by the Representative Concentration Path-ways in 2010 (RCPs).22 SA90, IS92, and SRES are all emission-based scenarios. Definition of SRES Scenarios: In 1996, the IPCC began the development of a new set of emissions scenarios, effectively to update and replace the IS92 scenarios. rcp 6 In this scenario, emissions double by 2060 and then dramatically fall but remain well above current levels. From the point of view of controlling future CO 2 concentrations, these graphics can be quite daunting. Earth System Models project a global increase in ocean acidification for all RCP scenarios by the end of the 21st century, with a slow recovery after mid-century under RCP2.6. This RCP is developed by the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan. 13). Instructor: Sonya Miller, Researcher, Department of Meteorology, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University. This courseware module is part of Penn State's College of Earth and Mineral Sciences' OER Initiative. Emissions scenarios are a way to help us understand what the future could look like. The RCP8.5 scenario is the closest to a ‘business as usual’ scenario of fossil fuel use, and has comparable forcing to SRES A2 by 2100. Cambridge University Press, UK. The dotted lines indicate four of the SRES marker scenarios. CMIP5 uses Representative Concentration Pathways, whereas CMIP3 uses scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios . Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This leads naturally to our next topic—the topic of stabilization scenarios. The term pathway emphasises that not only the long-term concentration levels are of interest, but also the trajectory taken over time to reach that outcome (Moss et al., 2010). In the A2 scenario, global population levels reach 15 billion by 2100. Emissions Scenarios Report IPCC, 2000 – Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart (Eds.) What is SRES Scenarios? The RCP development process includes calculation of scenarios of future emissions and policies that can lead to the specified levels of radiative forcing. Figure 6.2: Observed Historic Emissions Compares with the Various IPCC SRES Scenarios. Its findings will be based on a new set of scenarios that replace the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) standards employed in two previous reports. While some of the scenarios involve storylines that embrace generic notions of sustainability and environmental protection, the scenarios do not envision explicit attempts to stabilize CO 2 concentrations at any particular level. In the case of the A1 model, there are 4 scenario "groups" based on the possibility … (2010), and IPCC (2008)). IPCC, 2000: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Even the RCPs have encountered a fair bit of criticism. 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