This is the earliest that the GloFAS-Seasonal forecasts can be provided publicly under the Copernicus licence agreement. C3S Seasonal Forecast known issues This document has been produced in the context of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Overview map: regional discharge anomaly over the forecast horizon, highlighting regions with highest or earliest probability of a high (>90th percentile) or low (<10th percentile) discharge anomaly. This document has been produced in the context of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). CAMS: Orals. It produces both real-time and reanalysed ocean states and it relies on the assimilation of conventional and satellite observations. Earth Syst. This emphasizes the need to keep water sector users informed of scientific developments (see also Bolson et al., 2013), and to build awareness and knowledge around interpreting and using forecast quality information, as it is becoming more widely adopted in seasonal forecasting (see Copernicus, 2017a; Fry … The Copernicus enhanced seasonal forecast system launched. In the United States, for example, researchers have estimated that the 1997-1998 El Niño pattern inflicted costs of approximately $4 billion, but was offset by $19 billion in benefits. ECMWF is both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing and disseminating numerical weather predictions to its Member States. Important changes have been made to how seasonal forecasts are run operationally, so as to enhance the service given to users. The seasonal forecast products are updated once per month and made available via the forecast viewer on the 10th of each month. Input importances for seasonal forecast created on April 1st forecasting April through June at a snow-driven basin - Before the forecast … Normally in the beginning of each week a forecast for the next 2 weeks will be made available. The Copernicus model combines data from scientists in the U.K., France, Germany, Italy and the U.S. The forecasts provide hydrological outlooks which show the likelihood of high or low flows within the coming eight weeks in a region (aggregation of river basins). Hall X5. Li et al., 2016) and to long-range forecasts up to 12 months ahead (Bennett et al., 2016). They are created by comparing the forecast with EFAS low and high flow thresholds, each averaged over the defined regions. this website is accessible for visitors with dyslexia & reading difficulties. GloFAS-Seasonal forecast products are typically produced by the 5th of the month at 05:00 UTC and made available via the web interface on the 10th of the month at 01:00 UTC. GloFAS Model Details For hydrologists! 11 April: 16:25-16:27: C3S: PICO: Global seasonal hydrological forecasts – a Copernicus Climate Change Service experience. The re-forecast period has been increased to cover 1981–2016, a 36-year period, compared to 1981–2010 for S4. Climate Change Using ECMWF’sForecasts (UEF2019) Reading, UK, 3 - 6 June 2019 C o n t e n t s • Copernicus –Copernicus Programme and ECMWF SEAS5 data are publicly available through the Copernicus Climate Change Service's multi-system seasonal forecast. In particular, radar altimeter sea-level anomaly (SLA) data assimilation improves the representation of the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea level, which is important for extended to seasonal range weather forecasts. Providing products and services for all marine applications. The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service provides Full, Free and Open Access to Data & Information related to the Global Ocean and the European Seas. 16th December 2020 On 16th December the Copernicus Climate and Atmosphere Data Stores and associated development environments will be undergoing maintenance and are expected to be unavailable for around 4 hours from 17.00 UTC. For a more detailed presentation of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service, please refer to the attached factsheet and the service website. GloFAS Seasonal modelling chain is based on a coupled land-surface and hydrological model forced by an ensemble of meteorological forcings. Guidance from the leading seasonal dynamical models, including those provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, typically provides a significant component … PICO spot 5b. S5 anomalies of temperature and rainfall are estimated from the mean deviation of the seasonal forecast … GloFAS has been fully operational as a Copernicus Emergency Management Service since April 2018. The seasonal forecasts (left) are updated weekly with the latest LISFLOOD discharge simulation to help the forecaster with real-time validation. The EU program uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world for its monthly and seasonal forecasts and concluded that 2019 was the continent’s hottest year on record. GloFAS produces daily flood forecasts (since 2011) and monthly seasonal streamflow outlooks (since November 2017). Posters It provides regular and systematic reference information (observations and models) on the physical state and marine ecosystems: temperature, currents, salinity, sea level, sea ice, marine optics, nutrients, etc. The SEAS forecast is issued at monthly where as the S2S is issued twice weekly, on Mondays and Thursdays. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): exploitation of seasonal forecasting systems as natural integrator of Copernicus Services, enhancement of predictive skills at seasonal timescales, consistent climate re-analysis of the Earth system, improvement in predicting variations of the climate system over the next few years and decades, linkages between current extreme weather events such as droughts, … You must accept the terms and conditions of the Copernicus User Licence in order to access the C3S seasonal forecast data. The schematic below illustrates how the EFAS seasonal and sub-seasonal outlooks are produced. Sci., 22, 3409–3420, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3409-2018, 2018. The El Niño acts to redistribute heat and precipitation over the globe. El Niño is the main source of predictability for year-to-year climate variations and is closely studied by ECMWF and its seasonal forecast experts. Post-processed data You will find two CDS catalogue entries for real-time forecast monthly anomalies; each contains the anomalies for the ensemble mean for each system and the individual ensemble members. It bestows beneficial effects on economies as well as negative effects. As the seasonal forecast is updated each month, with a progressively shorter lead time to the end of the season, we would expect progressively more accurate forecasts of the water year. Multi-system combinations, as well as predictions from the individual participating systems, are available. When it comes to assessing past performance, the longer the period available the better. A 5-day monitoring analysis of the latest observations based on the latest ECMWF reanalysis when available is used to initialise the forecasts, followed by seasonal ensemble forecasts for 16 weeks from the latest ECMWF Seasonal Forecast System. Copernicus is an EU programme aimed at developing European information services based on satellite Earth Observation and in situ (non space) data. The API will also be … temperature, salinity, sea level, currents, wind and sea ice) also play a crucial role in the domain of weather, climate and seasonal forecasting. The maps are produced by the JRC's EFFIS Team based on data from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Seasonal Forecasting System named S5 (System 5). The maps are produced by the JRC's EFFIS Team based on data from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Monthly Forecast System (MFS). The release date has been brought forward from 12 UTC on the 8th day of each month to 12 UTC on the 5th day of each month. Hydrol. The EFAS long-range forecasts comprise two model systems; seasonal (SEAS) and sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) outlooks. The overview maps indicates the development of the water in the coming weeks. The C3S seasonal forecast products are based on data from several state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems. Seasonal forecasts provide a long-range outlook of changes in the Earth system over periods of a few weeks or months, as a result of predictable changes in some of the slow-varying components of the system. The CAMS daily forecasts show how CO is distributed around the globe and how plumes from, for instance, wildfires are transported across continents by the prevailing winds. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 34 states. Forecasting rainfall or temperature in probabilistic terms is a way of expressing uncertainty in the future weather/climate. Earth Syst. We describe the forecast methodology used in SEAS5 and compare results from SEAS5 to results from the previous seasonal forecast system, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of SEAS5. The seasonal outlook is produced by forcing the Lisflood river routing model with surface and sub-surface runoff from SEAS5, the latest version of ECMWF’s seasonal forecasting system, which consists of 51 ensemble members at ~35km horizontal resolution. The World Climate Service seasonal discussion and forecast for autumn was issued a few days ago, and as always the North Atlantic MSLP pattern featured heavily as an important consideration in the forecast, especially for Europe. 10:45-12:30. The application -which is not yet based on the CDS infrastructure-is a temporary solution in the global SIS demonstrator contract, run by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) from September 2017 to February 2019, used while equivalent functionalities in the CDS toolbox is being developed. Copernicus Meetings has the right to hold my presentation materials online for viewing and download by individuals. Enhanced seasonal forecast system now available Date: 13th November 2018 On 13 November 2018, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Union, released the latest enhancement of its seasonal forecast component. Many other countries have endured an economical deficit only. Improvement of the representation of the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea level changes, which is important for extended-range and seasonal-range weather forecasts. 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